Oil Monitor as of 13 May 2025

Date published: June 18, 2025

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 05-09, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude decreased by about $1.80 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline have also decreased by about $1.00 per barrel along with kerosene by about $2.70 per barrel and diesel by around $2.50 per barrel. 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

The average spot prices of crude and products during the week were dominated by the effect of the tariff announcements made by US President earlier in April that created uncertainty, weighing on the global economic growth outlook. Weaker trade was expected to lower economic growth, causing a decrease in demand for most major refined products. The extent of which tariffs affect the four main product demand varies among regions and products.2

However, crude oil futures rose due to a draw down in US crude oil inventories and on release of new stimulus package in China while the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance by keeping federal interest rates unchanged.

  • China has unveiled its first stimulus package since US President imposed sweeping tariffs, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 0.5 percentage point and key interest rates by 0.1 percentage point, while also offering additional support for domestic consumption and the industrial sector.
  • The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and implied it's in no rush to cut them before gathering more data to assess the real impact of the tariff policy. The Fed's latest decision marks its third consecutive meeting to keep interest rates unchanged amid deteriorating trade relations, weighing on global economic growth and demand for crude oil.
  • On the geopolitical front, investors await the outcomes of the upcoming US-China talks in Geneva, scheduled for the weekend. 
  • Adding risk premium to oil prices are tensions between India and Pakistan. While neither country is a major oil producer, escalating tensions could destabilize South Asia, raising concerns over regional security, trade routes and broader market sentiment.

Asian gasoline market was heard weaker on US stock build and return of supplies from refineries coming out of maintenance in the region.

  • For 2025 demand was relatively unchanged but 2026 was reduced by 17,000 b/d. China was reduced 5,000 b/d in 2026 with small reduction in other countries. The impact on gasoline in China will be small as economic uncertainties will result in lower penetration of electric vehicles while lower gasoline prices will also support the demand.2

Asian gasoil/diesel market softened as some South Asian and Northeast Asian refineries will come back from maintenance in May adding to supply.  India could see some downside to exports in the current month amid ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan.

  • Overall diesel demand was revised for both 2025 and 2026 at 106,000 b/d and 139,000 b/d. The impact of US tariffs on trade and shipping is expected to impact the economy resulting in lower diesel consumption. China accounts for 82,000 b/d in 2025 and 91,000 b/d in 2026 reduction alone in the overall reduction of Asia’s diesel demand. 2

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.51 to P55.56 from P56.07 in the previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 13 May 2025, local oil companies implemented a price decrease of P0.30/liter for gasoline, P0.90/liter for diesel and P1.25/liter for kerosene.

Year-to-date, gasoline has a total net increase of P2.80/liter as well as diesel with total net increase of P2.10/liter. Kerosene has a total net decrease of P3.25/liter.

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

1 Asia Pacific 09 May 2025 Weekly Oil Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics 

2 Global Short-term Outlook- Refined Product, 30 April 2025 by S&P Global Commodity Insights

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

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