Oil Monitor as of 27 May 2025

Date published: March 26, 2025

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 19-23, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude decreased by about $0.20 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline have also decreased by about $0.40 per barrel along with kerosene by about $1.15 per barrel and diesel by around $1.30 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

Crude oil futures rose on week amid geopolitical tensions on Russia-Ukraine talks and Israel planning to attack Iranian facilities while demand signals from China remained bearish that dominated the spot market.

  • Talks between the US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not yield any significant breakthrough, leaving the threat of further sanctions on Russia and a clear timeline for negotiations unresolved.
  • Crude price gains were capped by the increase in OPEC+ production in July as well. OPEC+ is considering raising output by 411,000 b/d in July, Bloomberg reported on May 22 citing delegates. The move would mark a third straight month of production hikes.
  • Data from China showed lower refining output in April, a 5% decline from March. Oil demand also decreased by 3.9% during the month and 5.3% lower than last year, the lowest demand since August 2024 amid US-China trade tensions.
  • US commercial crude stocks climbed 1.33 million barrels to 443.16 million barrels in the week to May 16, in line with recent market expectations.
  • Balancing the market was the heightening geopolitical tensions that could potentially disrupt oil supplies from the key Middle Eastern producer as Israel prepares for a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The Asian gasoline market complex strengthened as Indonesia’s demand could rise following the drop in domestic pump prices however, narrower US RBOB Brent crack capped the gains and expectation of more regional supplies bolstered by Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical.

The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil market sentiment dampened due to an oversupply in the region with refineries coming back from maintenance turnaround.

  • The US-EIA data showed an increase in ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel stocks in week ended May 16, as output jumped and implied demand fell to a four-month low.
  • Recovering exports from India and other regional exporters are adding to the length in the market as refineries come back from maintenance and amid limited arbitrage economics.

 

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.08 to P55.64 from P55.72 in the previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 27 May 2025, local oil companies implemented a price increase of P0.10/liter for gasoline.  Price decrease of P0.40/liter for kerosene, P0.20/liter for diesel.

Year-to-date, gasoline has a total net increase of P4.10/liter as well as diesel with total net increase of P3.60/liter.  Kerosene has a total net decrease of P2.45/liter. 

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

1 Asia Pacific 23 May 2025 Weekly Oil Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

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