OIL MONITOR As of 06 May 2025

Date published: May 8, 2025

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 28 to May 2, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude decreased by about $4.20 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline have also decreased by about $1.70 per barrel along with kerosene by about $2.00 per barrel and diesel by around $2.10 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

Crude oil futures settled lower amid renewed concerns about tariffs and economic growth concerns overshadowing the surprise US inventory draw.

  • OPEC+ Production. The market expects an even stronger increase in oil production from OPEC+ members in efforts to preserve their market share.  The output rise of 411,000 b/d set for May has raised speculation that Saudi Arabia, the leading member of OPEC+, might be abandoning a price defense in favor of a market share strategy.
  • Demand Outlook. Global oil demand growth is expected to average 800,000 b/d in 2025, marking a significant 500,000 b/d reduction from previous estimates, highlighting growing concerns about the impact of trade disputes on global economic activity and energy consumption. (Platts Commodity Insights’ Monthly Outlook published April 29).
  • Asian gasoline market.  Despite the week’s price decline, it remained strong, as market participants anticipate that China’s May exports could remain low on firm domestic demand.
    • Japanese demand for gasoline was heard to have risen amid Golden Week festivities and refinery issue which also supported gasoline market.'
    • China is expected to export around 400,000 mt of gasoline in May, down from an estimated 500,000 mt in April, as per sources.
    • Market participants expect gasoline prices to rise on the back of continued demand for Asian cargoes from Mexico's PMI.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel market. It remained firm as market participants maintained a tighter supply outlook in the near term, but:
    • ​China's gasoil exports have been lower due to domestic demand and weaker export margins.
    • South Korea’s diesel demand stood at 13.13 million barrels in March, largely stable year over year. Gasoil demand from January-March fell 9.4% year over year to 31.01 million barrels.
    • Thailand automotive diesel outflows rose 2.2% year over year and 9.65% month over month to 66,596 b/d in March.
    • Automotive diesel exports in Q1 climbed 6.4% year over year to 67,531 b/d. Notably, automotive diesel exports to Vietnam soared more than seven times to 1,663 b/d in the period, from just 219 b/d in Q1 2024.

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.48 to P56.07 from P56.55 in the previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 06 May 2025, local oil companies implemented a price decrease of P0.55/liter for gasoline, P0.65/liter for diesel and P0.90/liter for kerosene.

Year-to-date, gasoline has a total net increase of P3.10/liter as well as diesel with total net increase of P3.00/liter. Kerosene has a total net decrease of P2.00/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

[1] Asia Pacific 02 May 2025 Weekly Oil Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

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