Oil Monitor as of 20 May 2025

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 12-16, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude increased by about $2.50 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline have also increased by about $2.20 per barrel along with kerosene by about $2.70 per barrel and diesel by around $3.40 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

Crude oil futures rose as a 90-day pause to reciprocal tariffs agreement between China and the US buoyed the sentiment, with hopes of nearing deal between US and Iran that partially offset the following bearish sentiments. 

  • Concerns over the potential for additional Iranian supply on easing sanctions weigh on crude oil prices.
  • With OPEC having accelerated the phaseout of its 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts in May and June, traders have begun extending the 411,000 b/d supply hike into July. OPEC+ production in April was flat at 41.01 million b/d.
  • US commercial crude stocks rose 3.45 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels in the week to May 9, EIA data showed. The build came in below market expectations, following American Petroleum Institute data released late May 13 that indicated a larger increase of 4.29 million barrels.
  • Production gains outside of OPEC+ are expected to be driven by the Americas. Guyana's new Yellowtail development will add another 250,000 b/d of capacity by the third quarter.

The Asian gasoline market is expected to remain firm as India's gasoline demand was expected to be strong in May amid the school holiday period. However, Asian gasoline prices could face some downward pressure from increased regional production as refineries return from planned turnarounds.

  • Indonesia plans to gradually reduce and eliminate its oil product imports from Singapore and shift to sourcing from the US and the Middle East, with the transition set to begin in the next six months. The shift was reported part of the Indonesian government's aim to reduce its reliance on supplies from Singapore.
  • Gasoline cracks may strengthen in near future as optimism stemming from wider macroeconomic optimism from the US-China 90-day tariff pause, and continued expectations of low Chinese exports despite good export margins and firm domestic demand.

The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil market ticked upward on a bullish supply-demand outlook with sentiments strengthening on US-China deal.

  • Diesel demand in the ARA region has been relatively healthy, while primary stocks in Switzerland and Germany remain critically low. Diesel and gasoil imports into Europe are reportedly set to reach 3.6 million mt in May, which supply largely comes from the US.

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.16 to P55.72 from P55.56 in the previous week.  

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 20 May 2025, local oil companies implemented a price increase of P1.20/liter for gasoline, P1.70/liter for diesel and P1.20/liter for kerosene.

 

Year-to-date, gasoline has a total net increase of P4.00/liter as well as diesel with total net increase of P3.80/liter. Kerosene has a total net decrease of P2.05/liter.

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

1 Asia Pacific 16 May 2025 Weekly Oil Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph