Oil Monitor as of 17 June 2025

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 09-13, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $3.81 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline and diesel have also increased by about $3.49 per barrel.  While kerosene increased by $3.38 per barrel as well.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

Crude oil prices moved sharply higher after Israel launched pre-emptive airstrikes against target across Iran.  Concerns over shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz and war risk premiums resurfaced. The escalating Israel-Iran conflict caused widespread panic. Crude sees upside risks on supply disruption fears.

  • Israel’s airstrike against Iran prompted fear of supply disruptions from the Middle East.  Considering, Iran as the worlds 4th largest oil producer and exports over 2 million bpd of oil.  Retaliation of Iran raised concern of an all-out war between the two countries.
  • US and China had reached a trade “deal” after two days of negotiations in London, suggesting tensions between the two economic heavyweights could ease.  While the US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled.
  • Asian refiners and crude traders anticipate the broader Middle Eastern sour crude prices to become increasingly expensive in the upcoming trading cycles due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.

The Asian gasoline market strengthened amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.  Israel launched air strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, with reports that Israeli attacks may continue as they are targeting underground facilities.  Gasoline prices are likely to rise amid Middle East conflict.

The market was rangebound tracking gains amid rising demand, but higher crude prices offset the increase.  Expectation of lower exports from China in July amid lower refinery output and lower inflows from Middle East into the region. Returning supplies from refineries coming back from maintenance balanced the market.

The Asian gasoil market fell on sell tenders from North Asia and Middle East indicating higher regional supply.  Diesel demand was expected from trade negotiations between US and China however the impact was offset by rising crude prices.

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.14 to P55.86 from P55.72 in the previous week.   

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 17 June 2025, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.80/liter for gasoline and diesel, an increase of P1.50/liter for kerosene as well.

This brings a total net increase of P6.90/liter for gasoline and P6.65/liter for diesel.  Kerosene has a total net decrease of P.75/liter.

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph