Oil Monitor as of January 20, 2016

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 11-15, 2016 trading days)

Crude prices were on steady down-trend over the week, reaching an average decline of around US$4 a barrel. Asian Dubai posted Monday at US$28/bbl down to US$25/bbl as the week ends. Likewise, Brent and WTI dropped this week by about 10%, reaching its 12-year low level of US$30/bbl.

Persistent oversupply that battered oil prices since mid of last year remained the main reason behind the price slump. The drop was later heightened by fresh concerns about China's economic health that provided worries over demand for the world crude oil.

Some analysts expect prices to stay depressed in the short term, taking into account the return of Iranian oil to the export market. But many analysts are still expecting an incremental turnaround of prices this year as drillers, particularly in the US, see fewer incentives to continue their activities.

Over the week, the following reports dominated the oil market:

    • US-EIA Inventory Report. Crude inventories rose 234,000 barrels in the week ending January 8, much less than analysts’ expectations. This however was overshadowed by the reported builds of 8.4 million barrels in gasoline and over six million in distillates, which includes diesel and heating oil.

    • China’s crude imports and product demand data. China's crude oil imports hit a record 7.82 million barrels a day (bpd) in December, as it took advantage of low crude prices to fill strategic reserves. However, with waning economic growth, increase in demand for gasoline was moderate last autumn and appetite for diesel has fallen. This led to oil demand - refinery throughput plus net imports of fuels – being down 2.5 percent in November, and its exports of refined fuels also hitting an all-time high.

Platts news about the Asian market highlighted that gasoline market remains supported by strong buying interest for prompt cargoes, shrugging off another big build-up in US stocks that pushed down gasoline futures on the NYMEX. Market structure for FOB Singapore 92 RON gasoline reportedly turned flat this week, from contango in the past few weeks as prompt demand increased.

For gasoil/diesel, supply in the Asia-Pacific region remained ample, with a slew of sell tenders in the market, adding to the downward pressure, Platts said.

Overall, week-on-week average Dubai decreased nearly US$4.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel also dropped by almost US$4.00 and US$5.00 per barrel, respectively.

FOREX: The peso per dollar rate depreciated by P0.45 to P47.49, from P47.04 in previous week.

Other recommended reference site: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Most of the local oil companies implemented a price reduction effective 19 January 2016, i.e. gasoline by P1.00/liter, diesel by P1.45/liter and kerosene by P1.25. These price movements are reflected in the table.

Total adjustment this year stands now at net decrease of P1.00/liter for gasoline and P2.30/liter for diesel.

 

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 19 January 2016

Products Price Range Common Price
P/liter
Diesel 18.45-21.65 20.20
Gasoline* 32.15-39.95 37.10
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 420.00-680.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: [email protected]
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph