Oil Monitor as of 17 October 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 9-13, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $1.20/bbl. Additionally, MOPS diesel and kerosene prices have decreased by approximately $3.15 and $2.50 per barrel, respectively. On the other hand, the price of MOPS gasoline has increased by almost $0.80 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • A large inventory builds in the US put pressure on prices. US commercial crude stocks surged by 10.18 million barrels to a seven-week high of 424.24 million barrels in the week to Oct. 6. The build came as US production hit a record-high 13.2 million b/d and exports retreated to a nine-week low 3.07 million b/d.
  • The Asian gasoline market remained supported on regional factors despite of a narrower RBOB-Brent crack ahead of the winter season.
    • Chinese gasoline exports are expected to decline for the rest of the year due to tight export quotas, shrinking export margins, and a continued recovery in domestic demand.
    • Indian gasoline demand is expected to rise ahead of Diwali festivities in November, while supply could be limited due to planned maintenance works.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack stayed largely rangebound amid steady fundamentals.
    • Russia on Oct. 6 largely lifted its ban on diesel exports. Exports via pipeline to Russia's seaports are now allowed on the condition that producers deliver at least half their diesel output to the domestic market. Russia transports diesel by pipeline to three key Western oil terminals at Primorsk, Novorossiisk and Vysotsk, which together handle about 70% of all Russian diesel exports.
    • In Northwest Europe, the upcoming cold weather is expected to lift end-user demand for heating oil amid low inventory level, with temperatures in Amsterdam, Brussels and Rotterdam forecast to fall to 5-6 degrees Celsius below their five-year average at the start of next week.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.09 to P56.81 from P56.72 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 17 October 2023, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.95/liter for the price of diesel and kerosene. On the contrary, the price of gasoline has increased by P0.50/liter.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P12.80/liter for gasoline, P10.40/liter diesel and P4.99/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • https://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 13 October 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.